For example, unrealistic optimism can produce problems regarding informed consent when patients overestimate the likelihood of benefiting personally from participation in clinical trials ( Jansen et al., 2011). Unrealistic optimism has clear practical implications. Although the neurological evidence is limited, the findings suggest that people may be predisposed to be optimistic ( Sharot, 2011b). In fact, unrealistic optimism is now a topic of interest in biologically-oriented journals such as Nature Neuroscience ( Sharot, Korn, & Dolan, 2011) and Current Biology ( Sharot, 2011a Sharot, Guitart-Masip, Korn, Chowdhury, & Dolan, 2012). A recent book argues that unrealistic optimism has a neurological basis and that people have evolved to be unrealistically optimistic ( Sharot, 2011b). For example, economists describe the perils of unrealistic optimism among entrepreneurs and investors ( Bay, 2010), and medical researchers discuss unrealistic optimism among patients with advanced disease ( Jansen et al., 2011). It is a pervasive concept in many social sciences (including law, economics, and decision sciences) and in medicine. Interest in unrealistic optimism extends beyond psychology. Researchers have demonstrated unrealistic optimism in a variety of western countries (e.g., Belgium, Canada, Denmark, England, France, and the United States) ( Drace, Desrichard, Shepperd, & Hoorens, 2009 Harris, Middleton, & Joiner, 2000 Heine & Lehman, 1995 Helweg-Larsen & Nielsen, 2009 Hoorens & Buunk, 1993 Hoorens et al., 2008) and at least one eastern country (Japan) ( Heine & Lehman, 1995). Unrealistic optimism also appears in virtually every social psychology textbook and in most introductory psychology textbooks. The seminal paper ( Weinstein, 1980) that coined the term “unrealistic optimism” had received 1,418 citations as of February 2013. The number climbs still higher when terms like the “planning fallacy” and “positive illusions” are included. A Web of Knowledge database count of the five most common related terms (i.e., unrealistic optimism, comparative optimism, optimistic bias, optimism bias, and illusion of invulnerability) reveals 984 published papers. Researchers have investigated unrealistic optimism for more than 30 years, yielding on average 21 articles published per year. It also emerges, albeit often less strongly, for positive events, such as graduating from university, getting married, and having favorable medical outcomes ( Hoorens, Smits, & Shepperd, 2008 Jansen et al., 2011 Weinstein, 1980). This bias towards favorable outcomes-often known as unrealistic optimism-appears for a wide variety of negative events, including diseases such as cancer ( Waters et al., 2011), natural disasters such as earthquakes ( Burger & Palmer, 1992), and a host of other events ranging from unwanted pregnancies ( Gerrard, Gibbons, & Warner, 1991) to radon contamination ( Weinstein & Lyon, 1999), to the end of a romantic relationship ( MacDonald & Ross, 1999). Rather, people believe that their future will be better than can possibly be true. Researchers have long argued that people are not objective in their predictions ( Taylor & Brown, 1988 Weinstein, 1980).
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